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A dangerous combination of extreme heat and severe drought could affect nearly 2.6 billion people simultaneously in the coming decades, according to a new international study. The research shows that the interaction of record-breaking temperatures and prolonged rainfall shortages—already a growing concern—will occur more than five times as often as it does today due to accelerating climate change.
The findings, published by scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven and the Frontier Science Center at the Ocean University of China, paint a stark picture of a world where extreme weather events increasingly overlap and amplify one another. The team compared temperature and precipitation patterns across three periods: the pre‑industrial era (1850–1900), the present day (2001–2020), and a future climate scenario in which global temperatures rise by roughly 2.7 degrees Celsius.
A Dangerous Feedback Loop
“Heat and drought reinforce each other,” said Di Cai, climate scientist at the Ocean University of China and lead author of the study. “When extreme heat coincides with dry spells, water scarcity intensifies and food prices become unstable. For people working outdoors, these conditions can be life‑threatening.”
Even individually, heatwaves and droughts cause enormous damage—reducing agricultural and industrial productivity, straining water supplies, and increasing mortality among humans and animals. When they occur together, their impacts multiply.
Inequality Deepens as Extremes Intensify
The study also confirms a troubling trend: climate extremes disproportionately affect those who have contributed the least to global emissions. Low‑income countries, particularly in the tropics, face the highest risks from combined heat–drought events. These nations often lack the financial and infrastructural capacity to adapt, leaving millions more vulnerable.
Researchers identified several global hotspots where risks will be especially acute:
- Central and South America
- Southern Europe
- Africa
- South Asia
The heightened vulnerability of these regions is largely tied to their geographical location and climate sensitivity. In tropical and subtropical zones, even small increases in temperature can dramatically raise the likelihood of extreme weather events.
A Global Challenge With Uneven Consequences
As the world continues to warm, the study underscores the urgency of both mitigation and adaptation. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and stronger support for vulnerable regions, billions of people could face overlapping crises of heat, drought, food insecurity, and water scarcity.
The researchers warn that the coming decades will test global resilience—and global solidarity—more than ever before.
- source: derspiegel.de/picture: pixabay.com
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